Electoral Calculus

The UK Census is going ahead in 2031. This important data source supports the future of population statistics and continues to be of enormous value. Read more about the @TweetMRS Census & GeoDems Group’s involvement in the consultation here ⬇️ research-live.com/article/opinio…

Our latest poll for the @Telegraph highlights shifts in how mental health is perceived in the UK. More than half of the public say mental health problems are often exaggerated, yet only 14% believe current services meet demand. Full findings here ⬇️ electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_mhpol…

As we predicted on Thursday, Japan’s ruling LDP-Komeito coalition has lost its majority in the Upper House, falling three seats short. The LDP remains the largest party, but the right-wing Sanseito surged to 14 seats, shifting the balance of power. ⬇️

Our poll for @stae_elephants reveals strong public support for the Animals (Low-Welfare Activities Abroad) Act 2023. People want the Gov to prioritise implementation, but lack confidence in its ability to promote ethical animal tourism 🐘 Full findings⬇️ electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_staep…

As of Thursday, Electoral Calculus predicts Sunday’s Japanese Election will likely end the LDP-Komeito coalition in the Upper House. LDP set to remain the largest party, but right-wing Sanseito may gain 12+ seats, boosting its influence. Read more ⬇️ electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_japan…

One year into Starmer’s Labour government, our poll for the Sunday Mirror reveals a stark warning as the public feel worse off and nearly half say the PM lacks clear values and priorities. Read the full findings ⬇️ electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_mirro…

Our latest poll-of-polls has #Reform just short of an overall majority, ahead of #Labour, the #LibDems and the #Conservatives. The situation is very volatile and can quickly change. More details at: electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_mai…

Our new MRP poll, on behalf of @PLMRLtd and with @FindoutnowUK, suggests that if a General Election were held soon, Reform could win an outright majority with 377 seats, while the Conservatives may drop to just 29 seats 🗳️ Read more electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_vipol…

Our exclusive new poll with @FindoutnowUK reveals why many Labour voters no longer support the party and what is driving them away 📊 Read their views in their own words ⬇️ electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_labde…

Get a competitive edge with our Live Seat Data Maps. Receive monthly predictions for your constituency, detailed vote share analysis, and targeted data to strengthen your campaign efforts. Visit our store for full access & free samples ⬇️ electoralcalculus.co.uk/services_lsdm.…

Catch this yet? Our latest voter transition graphic shows how party support has changed between 2024 and May 2025. Explore the key shifts ⬇️ electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/pseph_tr…

As predicted on Friday, Nawrocki narrowly wins Poland's Presidential Election with 50.9% of the vote, (Trzaskowski 49.1%).

Poland's Presidential Election is 1 June 🇵🇱 As of Friday, the Electoral Calculus Analysis Team forecasts Andrzej Nawrocki to win by a tight margin, despite Rafał Trzaskowski winning round one. The race remains extremely close. Read more electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_polan…

Our new poll-of-polls now has #ReformUK at 30pc, which is enough for them to get a Westminster majority for the first time. #Labour second, and #Conservatives in fifth place with 22 seats. Details at: electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_mai…

We've released a video that walks you through our Live Seat Data Maps for local parties. This interactive tool provides monthly updated election predictions, vote shares and swing data for every UK seat. Watch here ⬇️ youtube.com/watch?v=GQiaJW…

Our new Live Seat Data Maps are here! Data-driven seat-level insights for local parties and campaign teams 🗳️ Monthly UK seat predictions 📊 Swings & vote shares 🎯 Targeting data to focus your resources Start tracking your seat. Visit our online store⬇️ electoralcalculus.co.uk/services_lsdm.…

ANALYSIS: Presentations from our “Polling Lessons from 2024” event are now available on our website britishpollingcouncil.org/polling-lesson… Featuring @keiranpedley @anthonyjwells @DamianSurvation @p_surridge @ProfJaneGreen @ElectCalculus @tmlbk @RStruthers17 @TyronSurmon

Reform could unseat Ed Miliband in a crushing Labour election collapse. We analysed results from each of the hundreds of wards in the May Local Elections to project outcomes in all 145 Westminster constituencies that held votes. ➡️telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/…

Our latest poll-of-polls has #ReformUK 2pc ahead of #Labour, who are 2pc ahead of #Conservatives. That puts Reform ahead in terms of seats, but situation is very changeable. Details at electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_mai…

EVENT: Join us 6th May where speakers from @YouGov @FindoutnowUK @BMG @Survation @IpsosUK @Verian @ElectCalculus @Moreincommon_ will share their reflections on polling at the last election and what we’ve learned along the way britishpollingcouncil.org/category/event/