Stephen Millard
@EconSteveM
26 1/2 years at the Bank of England before becoming Deputy Director for Macroeconomics and Forecasting at NIESR. I enjoy watching cricket and playing the piano.
#WeekendReading 🔖 What are the latest on #Climate Policy? 🌱 Our Lea de Greef, Patricia Sánchez Juanino and @CornforthEdmund discuss the role of Nationally Determined Contributions in shaping future Global #ClimateAction 🌍 ⬇️⬇️⬇️ @OECDdev @UNDP hubs.la/Q03ySXmf0
⚡️OUT NOW⚡️ In our latest #MondayInterview, just published, @KayaAhmetIhsan discusses with Lea de Greef, Patricia Sánchez Juanino and @CornforthEdmund the role of Nationally Determined Contributions in shaping future climate policy 🌱📈 ⬇️⬇️ @NiGEMmodel hubs.la/Q03x_kNS0
#WeekendReading 🔖 Proposing #policy responses to the economic challenges of an #ageingsociety 🧙♂️ Our and @Bruneluni half day conference on #Demographics & #Finance with contributions from some of the world’s leading authorities in the field ⬇️⬇️ hubs.la/Q03ySWR_0
The #UK needs to translate its plans for long-term economic #growth into a clear set of priorities in order to reverse current trends and end the 15 years of poor #productivity it has experienced 📈 ⬇️⬇️⬇️ @TPIProductivity hubs.la/Q03yTl1h0
Some of the authors include @DianeCoyle1859, @UofGVC, @PatrickDiamond1, @nigel_driffield, @TeraPauliina, @thomasforth, @jundu_econ, @timleunig, @RichardALJones, @r_ortegaargiles, @ProfGraemeRoy, and is edited by @bart_ark, @andywwestwood and our @EconSteveM & @AdrianPabst1 👇
The #UK needs to translate its plans for long-term economic #growth into a clear set of priorities in order to reverse current trends and end the 15 years of poor #productivity it has experienced 📈 ⬇️⬇️⬇️ @TPIProductivity hubs.la/Q03yTl1h0
Our work at both macro and household level gives unique insights into the challenges & opportunities faced by those who seek to make a more equitable country a reality⚖️ Explore here our topic hub on #regional disparities ⬇️ @NuffieldFound @RoyalEconSoc hubs.la/Q03yJ4FW0
📌UPCOMING EVENT ⏰ At this webinar, our researchers will present the findings of our upcoming UK and Global Economic Outlooks, followed by a Q&A from participants 💻Virtual event 🗓️Friday 8 August, 11:00-12:00 📝Sign up to join 👇 hubs.la/Q03yqFBF0
#WeekendReading 🔖 Our latest #CPI tracker explaining why probably we won't see #inflation coming down to the 2% target until late next year ⚡️📉 #UKeconomy #FoodPrices #Services #InterestRates hubs.la/Q03xTgvt0
Did you miss our 2025 Deane-Stone Lecture examining industrial and technological transitions in the UK and their implications for #productivity and competitiveness by @AllianceMBS' Prof @r_ortegaargiles ? No worries, here it is⬇️ hubs.la/Q03xTFb-0
#WeekendReading 🔖 Our latest #Wage Tracker is painting a more nuanced picture of the UK economy suggesting that, despite #unemployment and #inflation going 🆙, workers are overall still better off 📈 Here is why⬇️ hubs.la/Q03xTNqS0
A must-read thread from our Associate Economist @FergusJimenezE on today's #LabourMarket data ⬇️⬇️⬇️🧵 #unemployment #wages #ukeconomy
Lots of talk about the labour market this morning. Some observations 🧵: TL;DR The labour market is tight for some workers, but has become much weaker for the recently inactive. Apply Phillips curve logic at your own risk.
What has happened to the UK economy since after the Financial #Crisis of 2008? Our #LivingStandard review goes under the bonnet and tries to explain the main reasons - Read it here 👉 hubs.la/Q03xQZky0 #UKeconomy #GFC #inequality
#WeekendReading 🔖 In this #blog our @AdrianPabst1 lists the main pro-#productivity policies the Government should adopt, and outlines the key challenges the Govt will much likely face to implement them ⬇️ hubs.la/Q03xTg2m0
Looking forward to the August release of ONS Labour Market Flows data, which will hopefully add clarity to the labour market story.
Labour market slack is not observed, but imperfectly proxied/estimated. Policymakers looking to the unemployment rate as a signal for wage pressure should do so with caution.
In turn, I would hesitate to interpret rising unemployment as a guarantee of falling wage growth in coming months. The story requires more nuance than that. Indeed, here is the Phillips curve since January 2022, which is pretty much uninterpretable:
This two-tier environment can explain strong wage growth alongside rising unemployment. A separate question is what is driving this, which I won't cover here (work in progress!).
The rising unemployment rate seems to be driven by net flows out of inactivity and unemployment duration. Meanwhile, healthy redundancy rates and aggregate unemployed-to-employed flows (latest data for Q1) suggest that some workers still face a relatively tight labour market.
1. Wage growth is strong (5.0% YoY). 2. Falling inactivity rate (-0.9 ppts since March 2024). 3. Redundancy rate low and stable (3.7% in 3m to April vs 4.0% to January). 4. Vacancies falling. Is this consistent with labour market deterioration? Not entirely.
Lots of talk about the labour market this morning. Some observations 🧵: TL;DR The labour market is tight for some workers, but has become much weaker for the recently inactive. Apply Phillips curve logic at your own risk.