Derek J. Grossman
@DerekJGrossman
National security and Indo-Pacific analysis. Professor @uscdornsife. Words in @foreignpolicy, @NikkeiAsia, @foreignaffairs, etc. Views mine.
I'm very proud to announce that today I opened my own consultancy, Indo-Pacific Solutions LLC, that aims to provide cutting-edge analysis on the region. If you might benefit from my support, tailored to you and your organization, then feel free to reach out!

Philippine frustration with Marcos’ visit to the White House is palpable. Several commentators lamenting that Manila didn’t receive an “alliance discount” in tariff negotiations. In reality, Trump doesn’t treat allies any better than partners or foes. bworldonline.com/the-nation/202…
This is a BIG clarification. Unfortunately, confusion typically reigns in all of these new trade deals.
WATCH: President @bongbongmarcos clarifies that the Philippines only agreed to impose zero tariff on automobiles, and not the entire PH market. Marcos Jr says details still have to be ironed out after PH-US trade talks. | via @_katrinadomingo
What a shame. Good luck in the Philippine presidential election in 2028.
🚨President Trump announces a trade deal has been reached with the Philippines.
I hate to say this, but Marcos’ visit to the White House doesn’t appear to have achieved anything beneficial.
Trump: “The Philippines is going OPEN MARKET with the United States, and ZERO Tariffs.” Still 19% on Phil exports to US. Anonymous Phil official close to talks: “It is sad that for the Philippines the rate even went up—as an ally it is hard to take.” politico.com/news/2025/07/2…
Trump: “The Philippines is going OPEN MARKET with the United States, and ZERO Tariffs.” Still 19% on Phil exports to US. Anonymous Phil official close to talks: “It is sad that for the Philippines the rate even went up—as an ally it is hard to take.” politico.com/news/2025/07/2…
“India is preparing to extend a new line of credit to the Maldives, potentially finalising the agreement during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s upcoming visit on July 25–26…” firstpost.com/world/india-re…
Dramatic escalation. Thailand used one of six readied F-16s to strike targets in Cambodia. reuters.com/world/asia-pac…
Cambodia-Thailand relations are once again in crisis over their disputed land border. This round has been propelled by a combustible mix of historical grievance, military provocations, political malpractice, and frankly bad luck. washingtonpost.com/world/2025/07/…
“Regardless of US intent, the perception across the Pacific of the US as a disinterested and mercurial partner undercuts the country’s ability to build meaningful and lasting partnerships… and simultaneously opens space for China to displace US influence…”…

Might the US mediate India-Pakistan tensions over Kashmir? Well, State Dept spox hints that it just might when Pakistani FM comes to DC on Friday. If it happens, then India will be livid—another blow to the already faltering India-US strategic partnership. tribune.com.pk/story/2557415/…
FS Misri on Modi’s upcoming Maldives trip: “I think this is testimony to the kind of attention that has been paid to the relationship, including attention at the highest levels…We’ve continued to work at it, and I think the result is there for you to see.”hindustantimes.com/india-news/lon…
Trump’s US-Japan trade deal indeed appears very significant for both nations and with substantive agreements to back it up. Plus, the pact breathes new life into PM Ishiba’s tenure, which was in serious doubt after his party’s drubbing in recent elections. cnn.com/2025/07/22/bus…
TRUMP’s not so subtly dig at DUTERTE pro 🇨🇳 policy…
Ok, I finally got my hands on the draft US-Vietnam tariff agreement. Whoever wrote it must think Vietnam is a vending machine: insert pressure, get a deal. No way this gets signed. This is a real test of Vietnam’s “bamboo diplomacy”. Got my money on the Vietnamese diplomats!
Treasury secretary on Japan trade talks: “Our priorities are not the internal workings of the Japanese government…Our priorities are giving the best deal for the American people." japantimes.co.jp/business/2025/…
“Indonesia will finish work next month on its first national strategy on artificial intelligence in a bid to attract foreign investment, an official said, as Southeast Asia's largest economy looks to join the global AI and chip-making race.” reuters.com/business/media…