Dawie Scholtz
@DawieScholtz
Proudly South African. Management consultant most of the time. Tweeting about politics some of the time. Elections nerd, who used to work for the DA (2010-2014)
1/ I've done a deep demographic analysis of the election result. Read it comprehensively here: news24.com/news24/opinion… It is paywalled, but I will share the key stats in the thread below.
Exactly. The current state is perfect for the DA imho. Deliver where they can (and create differentiated delivery record in the process) and point out ANC delivery failure. The happy GNU family was always a fairytale. 2026 (and 2027) are around the corner.
The DA is doing well politically/electorally while SA’s economy is doing badly. DA gets credit for work in its portfolios but doesn’t attract blame for overall performance of the GNU. That is the (unintended) consequence of scrapping the Statement of Intent. Not smart by ANC.
Also, these numbers are in line with a ~30% national result for the ANC in 2026.
1/ There were multiple by-elections last night. Two of special interest. Emfuleni, Gauteng, ward 35 (Sebokeng township): Yesterday: ANC 38% MK 21% DA 12% EFF 8% 2024: ANC 50% DA 16% EFF 15% MK 12% 2021: ANC 53% EFF 21% DA 14% Only ~10% Zulu speakers. MK potential growing.
Re the US-South Africa Bilateral Relations Review Act passing through the House Committee on Foreign Affairs: - 34 votes in favour - 16 opposed - 7 Democrats voted in favour
In only today’s Sunday Times: 1) SETA looted 2) GP Hospital Boards Compromised 3) R2bn Ekurhuleni fraud scheme 4) Madibeng looted with impunity 5) The RAF in chaos 6) Joburg selling off green zones The scale and pace of this is insane. Another Sunday. We’re desensitised.
And for how much longer is government going to continue with the farce that our relations with the US have been normalised? Another total absurdity of the moment we find ourselves in.
🚨 The United States denied a diplomatic visa & rejected the credentials of President’s “Special Envoy,” Mcebisi Jonas. Despite knowing this, the president failed to appoint a replacement, leaving SA without representation during key trade talks. We demand answers. Read:…
One gets the feeling it’s chaotic in there.
Prof Firoz Cachalia received a call from President Cyril Ramaphosa an hour before he was announced as the new acting police minister.
The root cause of all these commissions/councils, etc. is that the people in gov are either compromised or unable to deliver, so then work needs to be investigated or outsourced to councils. Solution is to have people in gov who can do their jobs. It's not rocket science...
Prof Firoz Cachalia chairs the National Anti-Corruption Advisory Council, started by Ramaphosa in Sept 2022 to end corruption & state capture. Yet, despite this Council, the rot spread across the police & judiciary. Cachalia's term ends in September -what did the Council achieve?
It’s really difficult to keep track of all the commissions and advisory councils. It’s actually just mind-blowing that this is how things are currently (non) functioning.
Prof Firoz Cachalia chairs the National Anti-Corruption Advisory Council, started by Ramaphosa in Sept 2022 to end corruption & state capture. Yet, despite this Council, the rot spread across the police & judiciary. Cachalia's term ends in September -what did the Council achieve?
The thing about the 6 month timeline is that it pushes this issue into 2026... 🥲
The National Dialogue goes to the heart of why SA doesn’t work. (1) It’s form over substance; process over outcome. (2) It’s performative. Talking about acting, instead of acting. (3) The authoritarian obsession with consensus. We need hard choices made, not consensus.
Roads or National Dialogue - which way, fellow South Africans?
Morero estimates it will cost around R700m to fix all potholes in Joburg ewn.co.za/2025/07/10/mor…
I sense a new commission of enquiry on the horizon. Exciting times.
Completely, utterly hilarious that THIS is the red line for the President - The National Dialogue 😂😂😂 (not the fantasy fiscal framework folks, disagreement there was fine, but the National Dialogue is the red line) Hahahahahahahaha!!
Ramaphosa lays down the law to Steenhuisen, warns him that pulling out of the interministerial committee on the national dialogue will be seen as insubordination. Details in the #SundayTimesZA tomorrow
Nah, kinda sounds like a R700mn talk shop though. All the procurement processes for this have to be scrutinised to the nth degree.
The National Dialogue Planning workshop took place over 2 days ( 3-4 July 2025) preparing for the anticipated National Convention. A national dialogue is not just a talk shop — it’s a platform where the people have a real voice. It’s about listening to the lived experiences of…
Quantitatively, the most important by-election signal so far this year. Another indication of increased demographic potential for MK outside of Zulu-speaking communities.
The ANC holds Ward 57 (Motherwell) Nelson Mandela Bay ANC 62% (75%) EFF 16% (15%) MK 16% BOSA 3% AZAPO <1% Poll: 26% (42%) ANC still well ahead of the chasing pack, but MK make inroads. MK only got 1% on the provincial ballot in 2024. EFF pip MK for 2nd place.