Daniel Silke

While economic policy, governance transparency & democratic accountability are critical factors often undermining SA growth, providing a safe operating environment underpins it all. This is a critical moment for SA to confront the deep rot in this arena.

Passing of #SouthAfrica Budget shows continued GNU commitment to stability but deep policy and practice divisions still stymie economic growth and governance efficiency.

The cohesion of #SouthAfrica GNU will be tested this week as the key Budget vote looms. With rising intra-party tensions, policy uncertainty and ongoing corruption, the GNU just hasn’t been able to move beyond stabilising aspects of governance to growing the ailing economy.

A President has only himself - and his party - to blame for not dealing with both the fight against crime & the management of the country's protection agencies. Despite years of warnings, the decline has continued. Deficient leadership & lack of political will come home to roost.

Ramaphosa’s takes the right action. But, allegations of police corruption cut to the heart of so many state failures. Any investigation will need political will and fearless interrogation. This is an opportunity to come clean or perpetuate cover-ups and state decline.

Taking accountability has never been a strong suit of SA’s ANC Presidents. Now, as part of a GNU, there are new pressures. For Pres Ramaphosa, tonight is another test of credibility but with political pressures bearing down, it’s a potential defining moment.

Within the space 10 days, #SouthAfrica Pres Ramaphosa has fired a DA Minister for a relatively secondary transgression and now faces the most serious allegations against his own Police Minister that may cut to the heart of the fight against crime. Watching closely.

Ultimately, the #DA have dared the ANC to remove them from the GNU. It's a risky strategy that shifts the onus of the collpase of the GNU to the ANC & attempts to influence the ANC's internal politics in the process.

#DA not prepared to unilaterally leave the GNU & face that fallout. They are leaving that drastic step to the ANC to boot them out thereby taking the flak for upending the GNU. The DA have strategically blinked but the ANC will find itself torn internally in its response.

In terms of the GNU, the DA were likely owed greater Cabinet representation at its formation. That Whitfield was removed plunges the GNU into yet another crisis unless the balance of Cabinet positions can be re-apportioned fairly.

#SouthAfrica Q1 GDP at 0.1% is pretty dismal. It reflects the continued inability of the ANC/GNU to ignite real policy reforms and instill tangible optimism into both delivery and investment. With global tariff pressures, the macro environemnt doesn't help either.

So it has taken a hardball US Administration to force SA to rethink an ideologically moribund policy that undermines economic well-being. Pity that this realisation did not come naturally to the ANC and may it herald new & more widespread policy flexibility.

Pres Ramaphosa's restrained reaction in his White House enounter worked to his benefit. Pity the same restrained leadership style back at home stymies policy-making and effective governance execution.

The victims of crime in #SouthAfrica are both black & white. The real issue is how woefully inadequate the state’s response has been for decades. But, violence has an economic root with charges of unrelenting unemployment & stifled opportunity legitimately laid at the ANC’s door

Despite the video ambush ‘genocide’ claims from the US Pres, #SouthAfrica Ramaphosa is forced to confront the reality of how the country is perceived - rightly or wrongly - by Washington. SA’s deep problems are now aired in public & require a serious national dialogue. .

Third attempt at #SouthAfrica #Budget2025 will tick the political boxes of the increasingly fractious GNU. But the fundamentals of low-growth, rising debt & policy inertia amidst increasing poverty & unemployment remain. Reform requires political will & it’s urgent.

When in come to the failed Budget attempts & unpopular VAT rise, the ANC was politically more likely to fold - albeit following legal action - than they would be on ideological & transformational issues like employment equity. The GNU faces an even deeper crisis as this unfolds.

The battle over the future of the ANC/DA GNU will be fought in the ANC’s own factional corridors. Smaller parties are likely to be caught up in this but will likely be used as political pawns in the process.

Backed into both a political and legal corner, SA Finance Minister & Treasury scrap the proposed VAT increase. Ultimately, an embarrassingly poor Budget process met the new constraints of a weakened ANC. But, ANC/DA relations now tense as new financing options still unknown.

With #SouthAfrica 2025 GDP forecasts slashed to 1% does the country actually understand that it can no longer afford the political luxuries of a bloated bureaucracy, regulatory overburden, expensive labour policies and investor-unfriendly employment equity constraints?