CyclesFan
@CyclesFan
I don't have a Telegram account and don't sell newsletters.
$SPX has rallied 25.9% over the last 16 weeks. This is only the 5th such case in the last 30 years. The other cases occurred in 1997, 1998, 2009 and 2020. Cyclically, the closest case is 1997. An int. term top may be near but we could still see a powerful rally into next summer.
$TLT - Closed higher after 3 down weeks in a row. It looks like last week's low was a significant higher low and the May low won't be broken. It has to close above the 20 week MA in order to rule out the possibility of undercutting the May low in Q3.
$Silver - Made a new bull market high this week but there's resistance around 40. The next intermediate term top is due in late August so the bulls can stay calm because we're going to see it break above 40 in August. The target could be as high as 44.
$Gold - The weekly candle is somewhat bearish so gold may hit the 20 week MA next week, but last year at the same time the action was similar. We have at least 2 more months of upside in this weekly cycle that will top in late Q3 or early Q4, and gold will make a new ATH.
Some people didn't understand these stats. The drawdown is measured vs. the starting date(3 months after a ZBT) which in this case is 7/24/25 when SPX closed at 6363. If SPX gets straight to 7K, then drops 10% to 6300, it won't be reflected in this data. x.com/CyclesFan/stat…
Max drawdown from 3 months after the signal over the next 12 months for the 13%+ cases: Oct 1950: -4.8% Feb 1963: -3% Apr 1975: -1.42% Nov 1982: -2.98% Jun 2009: -4.27% Apr 2019: -22.75% Feb 2024: -0.3% Small drawdowns except for the black swan in 2020. x.com/CyclesFan/stat…
What the fuck? I didn't predict a 70%+ cut for 2025 in July 2024. I predicted it last week for 2026. Grok must be drunk. x.com/grok/status/19…
CyclesFan has made several Bitcoin predictions. Accurate in hindsight: - Sep 2024: No lower lows for rest of year after Aug (actual: lows rose post-49k). - Jun 2024: Touch of 10-month MA in Q3 (actual: hit 49k in Aug). Inaccurate: - Feb 2025: Hit 74k in Mar (actual low 76k). -…
Typical Bitcoin bug mindset exhibit 1. x.com/NegativeGhstRd…
We would have to have a Bitcoin bull market to have a bear market. We just have a slow grind up as S curve adoption is happening. No more retail FOMO parabolic run up and crash. Bookmark this. We aren't going below $100K again.
You have to be an idiot to advise people to buy Bitcoin at 116K when they can buy it at 50K or lower next year. x.com/mikealfred/sta…
If you’re not a millionaire yet and want to become one, just buy 1 Bitcoin for $116,666 and hold for 4-8 years. Easy.
$SPX - This is a blow off top now. The TSI closed above 42. This is the 3rd time that happened in the last 5 years. The other cases topped at 51 in Sep 2020, 51 in Dec 2023 and 49 in Jul 2024. Dec 2023 isn't comparable. The 2020 and 2024 cases were followed by 10% corrections.
Max drawdown from 3 months after the signal over the next 12 months for the 13%+ cases: Oct 1950: -4.8% Feb 1963: -3% Apr 1975: -1.42% Nov 1982: -2.98% Jun 2009: -4.27% Apr 2019: -22.75% Feb 2024: -0.3% Small drawdowns except for the black swan in 2020. x.com/CyclesFan/stat…
Remember the Zweig Breadth Thrust 3 months ago, on April 24? 3 months later the S&P 500 is up 16%, the 2nd best return for a ZBT in history. The average return 1 year from the signal for ZBTs that were up 13%+ after 3 months is 32%. We're talking SPX 7240 on April 24 2026.
Remember the Zweig Breadth Thrust 3 months ago, on April 24? 3 months later the S&P 500 is up 16%, the 2nd best return for a ZBT in history. The average return 1 year from the signal for ZBTs that were up 13%+ after 3 months is 32%. We're talking SPX 7240 on April 24 2026.
$SPX - Another new ATH today(6381) but this time the close was weak so we could still see a pullback over the next 2 days as the time window for this cycle low we've seen since April 21 lasts until Monday. If it closes above the upper BB we'll have a blow off top into August.
$GOOGL - It's up 1.5% but quite a disappointing candle. Opened at 197 but it's only at 193. Despite that, given that the market isn't selling off, it's likely to keep pushing higher towards the all time high at 207 over the next 2 weeks.
$TSLA - Contrary to what it seemed post market yesterday(it was flat) it's down 9% today, but despite that it hasn't broken any significant support yet. The key support is the June low at 273. As long as it's above 273 this may still be a bullish consolidation or a trading range.
Google with a double beat and a PE ratio of 21 is currently down around 1.5% in post market and Tesla with a double miss and a PE ratio of 190 is currently unchanged in post market. That's why I didn't bet against the cult stock Tesla. LOL. x.com/CyclesFan/stat…
$GOOGL has reached the big down gap from February at 192.75-202.81. I'm going to risk it and predict a selloff post earnings due to reaching this major resistance range and the cycle that is pointing to a pullback in the indices this week.
$SPX - Made another new ATH today at 6360 but notice that Nasdaq 100 didn't make a new high as well. I still expect a pullback to the 20 day MA by the end of the week. If there's no bearish reversal tomorrow maybe we just see a blow off top into early August.
$GOOGL has reached the big down gap from February at 192.75-202.81. I'm going to risk it and predict a selloff post earnings due to reaching this major resistance range and the cycle that is pointing to a pullback in the indices this week.
$SPX - We're approaching another short term low this week. The previous lows occurred 31-32 calendar days apart, so it's most likely to occur on Thursday or Friday. The minimal target is the 20 day MA but the lower BB is in play too, since it will be above 6147 by Thursday.
$DXY - W'ere having another bearish reversal off the 10 week MA this week. The decline into the 3 year cycle low in 2023 lasted 41 weeks. The decline into the 3 year cycle low in 2021 lasted 42 weeks, so the next 3 year cycle low is due in late October to early November.
