Consensus Media
@ConsensusGurus
Attempting to lay down Consensus views to better inform decision making. Often sarcastic, and often ranting. Do your own due diligence.
Unpopular Opinion - Trump will be Bad for the Current Housing Rally 1) Supply side pressures: The current supply of cheap foreign labor for builder subcontractors is reduced, while imported housing components of all sorts (lighting, cabinets, fixtures, appliances, furniture)…
*RETAIL INVESTORS FLEE OPENDOOR AS THEY REALIZE IT'S A NEGATIVE MARGIN HOME FLIPPING BUSINESS
Existing home sales in 3 minutes - brace for impact. And also know that this data is lagging and generally not super impactful. Typically you can fade bumps and buy dips...
Unpopular Opinion - Trump will be Bad for the Current Housing Rally 1) Supply side pressures: The current supply of cheap foreign labor for builder subcontractors is reduced, while imported housing components of all sorts (lighting, cabinets, fixtures, appliances, furniture)…
Still Some Clouds on the Housing Horizon after Yesterday's Record Rally consensusmedia.substack.com/p/still-some-c…
Unpopular Opinion - Trump will be Bad for the Current Housing Rally 1) Supply side pressures: The current supply of cheap foreign labor for builder subcontractors is reduced, while imported housing components of all sorts (lighting, cabinets, fixtures, appliances, furniture)…
*HIMS FOLLOWS KRISPY KREME HIGHER AS FUTURE DEMAND FOR COMPOUNDED SEMAGLUTIDE SKYROCKETS $HIMS $DNUT
A quick and easy 300bps
I'm going to say that maybe $NXPI shouldn't be down another 5% on $TXN commentary after having just reported their own outlook last night...
Put a Fork in Search? Alphabet $GOOG 2Q'25 Consensus Earnings Preview Our Consensus metrics breakdown as well as the valuation setup into the print - we'll also email subscribers the recap ASAP following the release this afternoon.
Existing home sales miss, fall 3% M/M:
Still Some Clouds on the Housing Horizon after Yesterday's Record Rally consensusmedia.substack.com/p/still-some-c…
Housing pretty uniformly red today with all 3 homebuilders that reported this morning disappointing.
Still Some Clouds on the Housing Horizon after Yesterday's Record Rally consensusmedia.substack.com/p/still-some-c…
Here's what you get as a Substack subscriber - the fastest Earnings recap available, which often leaves plenty of time to make decisions before price discovery. Here for $PM yesterday when the move lower was just starting:
Social data -> transaction data -> earnings And $HAS was very strong into today’s print.
TickerTrends Enterprise Note: $HAS — Wizards Segment Call Street Estimate: $459M TickerTrends Forecast: $520M–$550M (+15% to +20%) Reported: $522M (+16% beat) We identified a significant disconnect between consensus expectations and actual performance in the Wizards segment
Earnings Setup Tables for Thursday 7.24 Included names: ALK, AMTB, APH, ASGN, BANC, BDN, BKU, BNED, BPOP, BRKL, BSX, BWB, CADE, CBAN, CCI, CCS, CFFN, CHCO, CHDN, CLB, CME, CMG, COOP, CSX, CVBF, CVLG, CYH, DBIN, EGBN, EGP, EPRT, ESRT, FAF, FCBC, FCX, FI, FPI, FRME, FSBC, FSBW,…
A Bar Too High - Texas Instruments $TXN 2Q'25 Consensus Earnings Recap Consensus metric recap and our setup, which explains the negative share reaction: consensusmedia.substack.com/p/a-bar-too-hi…
Any Juice Left after Today? Enphase $ENPH 2Q'25 Consensus Earnings Recap Our Consensus metric recap and setup into the print: consensusmedia.substack.com/p/any-juice-le…
This Should Buff Right Out - Intuitive Surgical $ISRG 2Q'25 Consensus Earnings Recap How did Da Vinci do and what was the setup: consensusmedia.substack.com/p/this-should-…
What is this, a Cloud Backlog for Ants? $SAP 2Q'25 Consensus Earnings Recap Consensus metric recap and our reason for why shares are falling in AH trading: consensusmedia.substack.com/p/what-is-this…
I'm going to say that maybe $NXPI shouldn't be down another 5% on $TXN commentary after having just reported their own outlook last night...