Carroll Doherty
@CarrollDoherty
Public opinion, political data. Visiting senior fellow, German Marshall Fund Former director of political research at Pew Research, senior writer at CQ
Themes that came up frequently in @jon_rauch @Peter_Wehner illuminating interviews w/ a cross section of 19 Democratic lawmakers, officials: affordability, culture, messaging, abundance, etc. What didn't (evidently): democracy. nytimes.com/2025/07/18/opi…
Lots of discussion today about impact of possible PBS/NPR cuts - and Medicare cuts - will have on rural communities. Last year, rural voters backed Trump by a whopping 40 pts, a sizable increase from his 25-pt advantage over Hillary Clinton in 2016. pewresearch.org/politics/2025/…
This from fascinating new @MULawPoll - 68% of public thinks the One Big Beautiful Bill will increase the federal deficit, up from 52% in May. Among Republicans, the share expecting the bill to add to the deficit has doubled, from 22% to 44%. law.marquette.edu/poll/
Interesting post on the political views of Muslim Americans: More liberal on some issues (71% prefer bigger govt. vs. 55% of all US adults); More conservative on cultural issues (55% say homosexuality should be discouraged vs. 30% of all adults). pewresearch.org/short-reads/20…
KFF polling offers a clear look at the financial pressures Americans face in the health system, from delaying care to medical debt. Our updated analysis brings the most useful findings into one place: on.kff.org/45btsuG
The biggest economic issue that no one is talking about: AI is projected to replace 12 million jobs in the next decade. Americans say they're worried about it. But no national politician has a plan for it. A new piece with some ideas, from me, Zoe Jacobs, and Diego Haro. 1/
NEW: from me in @POLITICOMag The suspicion Epstein is generating among Republicans is raising questions about whether Trump’s floor may finally crack — and, one way or another, become the “it” moment his opponents have eagerly awaited for so long. politico.com/news/magazine/…
A year ago, Joe Biden withdrew from the 2024 race, following his poor debate performance. But the public had doubts about Biden's mental acuity long before his stumbling debate. pewresearch.org/politics/2024/…
One of the more suprising findings from @pewresearch validated voter study: Vote among naturalized citizens in 2024: 51% Harris/47% Trump In 2020: 59% Biden/38% Trump pewresearch.org/politics/2025/…
New newsletter: HOW THE HOUSING MARKET FOR YOUNG PEOPLE BECAME A 'TOTAL DISASTER' In 1991, the median age of first-time homebuyers was 28. Now it’s 38. This is the hardest time for young people (defined, generously, up to 40) to buy their first home in modern history. The…
This from @axios 2 years ago - hard to imagine things have significantly improved: 'By the numbers: Across the top six late-night programs, ad revenue is down more than 50% since 2014, and more than 60% from its peak in 2016.' axios.com/2023/04/28/lat…
👀👀👀 +34 (!) in PA is very very hard to achieve And has implications for the House: Shapiro will lead the ticket in 26, when there are 4 competitive House races in PA
Morning Consult poll Governor Josh Shapiro approval (PA) Approve 61% (+2) Disapprove 27% April-June 2025 RV
Coming up on 10 years since “Trump might have finally crossed the line.”
2 key stats from @WSJ: 'Roughly half of the more than two million people employed on farms are working in the U.S. illegally.' And - 'The vast majority of agriculture acreage—GOP lawmakers put it at over 90%—is represented by Republicans in Congress.' wsj.com/politics/polic…
Really interested in seeing: % of Democrats who see their midterm vote as a vote ‘against’ Trump; And % of Reps who are voting ‘for’ him. And how does that compare w/ 2018, 2006 etc.
This is quite the enthusiasm gap in Dems’ favor.
From @Gallup: "Americans' average confidence in major U.S. institutions is unchanged since last year, with a near-record-low 28% of U.S. adults expressing 'a great deal' or 'quite a lot' of confidence in nine institutions tracked consistently since 1979." news.gallup.com/poll/692633/de…
Whatever struggles Trump is going through right now, it's not making Dems in Congress look better. Their approval is down to a record-low 19%, per @QuinnipiacPoll.
NEW 74% of U.S. adults say they would support banning middle and high school students from using cellphones during class, up from 68% last fall. (cc @JonHaidt) pewresearch.org/short-reads/20…
This happens at this point every cycle. DC political types are bored and anxious for midterms to begin. Old enough to remember when Adams was ‘future’ of Dem party as was DeBlasio…
Expecting every Democratic race to now play out like the New York mayoral primary is a willful misunderstanding of what was particular about Mamdani, about Cuomo, and about the electorate in New York City.
Lots of Republicans chose 'other' responses on @CNN's Epstein Q (although 40% did express dissatisfaction w/ amount of of info released by govt.): 38% said 'doesn't matter either way' 18% haven't heard enough to say cnn.com/2025/07/15/pol…
