Canada Projections🇨🇦

For all your election projection needs! 74% by-election accuracy, 89% general election accuracy

This marks a decrease in CAQ support of 36.8 points from the last election Cela marque une baisse de 36.8 points de pourcentage du soutien à la CAQ par rapport aux dernières élections

Projection de l'élection partielle de Arthabaska - 27 juillet 2025 cdnprojections.ca/arthabaska ➡️31.73% (+1.83) ⚜️29.99% (+3.61) 🟦15.00% (-7.24) Changement à partir du 8 juillet 2025

Battle River-Crowfoot By-Election Tracker - July 27, 2025 cdnprojections.ca/battle 🟦73.65% (-0.92) ⬛8.59% (+4.79) 🟥8.40% (-3.23) 🟪5.69% (+0.64) 🟧3.09% (-0.97) 🟩0.59% (-0.30) Change from June 30, 2025

Preferred Prime Minister Polling Average - July 27, 2025 🟥Carney: 55.32% 🟦Poilievre: 31.94% ⚜️Blanchet: 4.37% 🟧Davies/Singh: 4.28% 🟩May: 2.42% 🟪Bernier: 1.66% ❔Undecided: 15.32%

August will be a busy month for electoral politics in Canada: August 11 — Arthabaska, QC by-election August 12 — Charlottetown-Hillsborough Park and Brackley-Hunter River, PEI by-elections August 18 — Battle River—Crowfoot federal by-election August 26 — Spruce Woods, MB…

And here is Quebec polling since 2003

Wowie, so many dancers! Look at the byelection trackers here: cdnprojections.ca

Quebec 2022-2026 polling graph

Spruce Woods By-Election Tracker - July 25, 2025 cdnprojections.ca/spruce 🟦46.50 (-15.31) 🟧37.30 (+13.30) 🟥10.61 (-3.58) 🟪2.92 (+2.92) 🟩2.17 (+2.17) ⬛0.51 (+0.51) Change from the 2023 Election

A byelection has been called for the Spruce Woods electoral division. The byelection will be held on Tuesday, August 26. Your vote matters. Find out more at electionsmb.ca.

Current list of candidates for the Battle River—Crowfoot federal by-election. The candidate deadline is on Monday, July 28. Centrist: Ahmed Hassan Christian Heritage: Jeff Willerton Conservative: Pierre Poilievre  Green: Douglas Gook* Independent: Dylan Colquhoun Independent:…

After the candidate deadline, here is the final list of candidates for the PEI by-elections on August 12. Brackley-Hunter River: Green: Philip Hamming Liberal: Nicole Ford NDP: Michelle Neill PC: Kent Dollar Charlottetown-Hillsborough Park: Green: Janine Karpakis Liberal:…

Ontario Model Update - July 25, 2025 cdnprojections.ca/ontario 🟦91 (+11) 🟧21 (-6) 🟥9 (-5) 🟩2 (=) ⬛1 (=) Change from the 2025 Election