CA120
@CA_120
A regular Data and Analysis section for @Capitol_Weekly by @paulmitche11
See the full @NateSilver538 @galendruke @LaurelRosenhall @paulmitche11 conversation, with the Survey USA hot takedown, here: fivethirtyeight.com/videos/
The most important article on CA redistricting today comes out of Texas: keranews.org/politics/2025-…
We have heard idea of a statewide ballot measure, but what you’re hearing here from @GavinNewsom is the possibility of something different - and bolder. The state constitution is silent on prohibiting mid-decade redistricting. So this idea appears to be hinge on an…
NEWS: Newsom floats calling for a special election to change CA constitution on redistricting: "[The legislature] can put something on the ballot. I could call a special election. We can change the constitution with the consent of the voters, and I think we would win that."
In just 90 minutes last week, the bromance between @realDonaldTrump & @elonmusk imploded in a barrage of X posts, Truth Social rants & public jabs, shattering their so-called Co-Presidency. @paulmitche11 polled Republican views on the feud. @CA_120 capitolweekly.net/california-rep…
New poll out with CA Republican views of the Trump/Musk spat. “In an open-ended section, the most common word used to describe the clash was “childish” (used 53 times, along with 11 uses of “child” and 23 uses of “children”)“ capitolweekly.net/california-rep…
Rank and file Republicans understand the Big Bad Budget Bill is actually a Betrayal, of what was promised on affordability or on deficits. Do GOP Senators?
Elon's personal attacks on Trump fell flat among California Republicans, but his attacks on the Big Beautiful Bill show a real vulnerability for the President. Among 872 CA Republicans surveyed, more than 80% agreed with posts critical of the House passed version of the bill.…
One could suggest that the reason @realDonaldTrump is sending the military to LA and ICE officers into schools is to distract from just how DOA his Big Beautiful Bill actually is. The fact that 80% of CA Republicans have turned on the Trump Budget Bill is absolutely amazing.
Elon's personal attacks on Trump fell flat among California Republicans, but his attacks on the Big Beautiful Bill show a real vulnerability for the President. Among 872 CA Republicans surveyed, more than 80% agreed with posts critical of the House passed version of the bill.…
Elon's personal attacks on Trump fell flat among California Republicans, but his attacks on the Big Beautiful Bill show a real vulnerability for the President. Among 872 CA Republicans surveyed, more than 80% agreed with posts critical of the House passed version of the bill.…
Couldn't help myself... Poll in the field right now - asking California Republicans about the @realDonaldTrump and @elonmusk spat. First lesson - the online fight is breaking through to regular Republican voters.
Just in time for the Dem convention in Orange County this weekend. capitolweekly.net/for-california…
Asked @grok about Governor Newsom’s support for Prop 1 in 2022 and it said that the reason he supported it was to protect Californians from any future Governor or legislature that would cut or underfund abortion access. Interesting… —- Governor Gavin Newsom supported…
Hey @grok, why did Governor Gavin Newsom support Proposition 1 in 2022, the state constitutional amendment protecting abortion access when CA already supports abortion rights?
New update from Alameda County and @BarbaraLee_CA is now winning #oaklandmayor outright on the first ballot.
More on these ~30k late ballots, those being tabulated and reported starting Fri Early were 61% Homeowner / Late are 54%. Early 40% Seniors / Late 20% Seniors. Early 8% Latino & 12% Asian / Late 10% Latino & 8% Asian Early 5% Rep & 77% Dem / Late 2% Rep, 80% Dem
Looking at the total ballots received by @Political_Data, minus those tabulated so far, there are 36,429 ballots still to be counted. Of those, 22,961 come from Lee‑won precincts vs 13,468 from Taylor‑won precincts.