Britain Elects

📊 Ref lead of 5pts Westminster voting intention REF: 29% (-1) LAB: 24% (-1) CON: 18% (+1) LDEM: 13% (+1) GRN: 9% (-) via @OpiniumResearch, 09 - 11 Jul Chgs. w/ 27 Jun britainelects.com

✅ Labour HOLD Baglan (Neath Port Talbot) council by-election result: LAB: 37.5% (-16.8) IND: 28.2% (-2.3) REF: 23.7% (+23.7) PC: 7.9% (+7.9) CON: 1.0% (-14.1) GRN: 1.0% (+1.0) +/- 2022 andrewteale.me.uk/previews

❗ Reform GAIN from Labour St Martin's (Basildon) council by-election result: REF: 44.6% (+44.6) LAB: 35.1% (-8.4) CON: 13.5% (-9.9) GRN: 3.5% (-10.6) LDEM: 1.6% (-9.0) TUSC: 1.1% (-7.3) +/- 2024 andrewteale.me.uk/previews

❗ Reform GAIN from Conservative Maypole and Leyton Cross (Dartford) council by-election result: REF: 53.7% (+53.7) CON: 28.0% (-40.7) LAB: 12.6% (-18.7) GRN: 5.7% (+5.7) +/- 2023 Estimated turnout: ~26% (-3) andrewteale.me.uk/previews

❗ Reform GAIN from Conservative Stone House (Dartford) council by-election result: REF: 45.2% (+45.2) LAB: 28.4% (-12.8) CON: 18.1% (-31.4) GRN: 8.3% (-1.0) +/- 2023 Estimated turnout: ~22% (-6) andrewteale.me.uk/previews

✅ Conservative HOLD Prestatyn Central (Denbighshire) council by-election result: CON: 21.7% (-1.8) IND: 21.1% (+17.2) REF: 18.4% (+18.4) PC: 14.4% (+14.4) GRN: 13.6% (-35.4) LAB: 9.0% (-14.5) Defence was second placed winner of two-member ward. +/- 2022…

✅ Plaid Cymru HOLD Pontypridd Town (Rhondda Cynon Taf) council by-election result: PC: 51.6% (-2.2) REF: 24.2% (+24.2) LAB: 19.4% (-16.8) CON: 2.6% (-7.3) GRN: 2.2% (+2.2) +/- 2022 andrewteale.me.uk/previews

❗ Conservative GAIN from Liberal Democrat Market Harborough-Logan (Harborough) council by-election result: CON: 31.3% (+4.1) LDEM: 27.1% (-19.8) GRN: 22.2% (+14.5) REF: 14.5% (+14.5) LAB: 3.4% (-9.1) IND: 0.8% (-4.8) +/- 2023 andrewteale.me.uk/previews

✅ Green HOLD Sefton Park (Liverpool) council by-election result: GRN: 49.8% (-7.0) LAB: 22.4% (-11.1) LDEM: 20.5% (+15.4) REF: 5.7% (+5.7) CON: 1.5% (-3.0) +/- 2023 andrewteale.me.uk/previews

📊 Ref lead of 6pts Westminster voting intention REF: 28% (+2) LAB: 22% (-2) CON: 17% (+1) LDEM: 16% (+1) GRN: 12% (+1) via @YouGov Chgs. w/ 07 Jul britainelects.com

✅ Green HOLD Last week's Horam and Punnetts Town (Wealden) council by-election result: GRN: 36.0% (-28.8) REF: 33.1% (+33.1) CON: 19.8% (-15.4) IND: 11.1% (+11.1) +/- 2023 Estimated turnout: ~28% (-16) andrewteale.me.uk/previews

✅ Liberal Democrat HOLD Last week's Hoe Valley (Woking) council by-election result: LDEM: 62.8% (-8.5) REF: 21.3% (+21.3) CON: 7.3% (-9.0) GRN: 4.7% (+4.7) LAB: 3.9% (-8.5) +/- 2024 Estimated turnout: ~25% (-6) andrewteale.me.uk/previews

✅ Liberal Democrat HOLD Last week's Woking South (Surrey) council by-election result: LDEM: 63.8% (+5.8) REF: 19.2% (+19.2) CON: 9.6% (-16.0) GRN: 4.4% (-2.5) LAB: 3.0% (-4.6) +/- 2021 andrewteale.me.uk/previews

❗ Reform GAIN from Labour Last week's Keppel (Rotherham) council by-election result: REF: 40.3% (+40.3) IND: 27.8% (+7.8) LAB: 19.4% (-17.9) CON: 3.6% (-8.3) YRK: 3.5% (-9.3) LDEM: 2.8% (-2.0) +/- 2024 Estimated turnout: ~28% (-3) andrewteale.me.uk/previews

✅ Liberal Democrat HOLD Last week's Bookham East and Eastwick Park (Mole Valley) council by-election result: LDEM: 56.0% (-6.6) REF: 20.5% (+20.5) CON: 20.5% (-10.1) GRN: 3.0% (-1.5) No Lab (-2.5) as prev. +/- 2024 andrewteale.me.uk/previews

❗ Reform GAIN from Independent Last week's Northway (Tewkesbury) council by-election result: REF: 41.4% (+41.4) LDEM: 30.9% (+12.9) CON: 12.8% (-13.5) GRN: 10.1% (+10.1) LAB: 4.9% (-17.5) No Ind (-33.4) as prev. +/- 2023 Estimated turnout: ~25% (-4) andrewteale.me.uk/previews

✅ Liberal Democrat HOLD Last week's Botley and Sunningwell (Vale of White Horse) council by-election result: LDEM: 71.5% (+7.9) CON: 15.8% (-1.8) GRN: 12.7% (+11.2) No Lab (-17.4) as prev. +/- 2023 Estimated turnout: ~20% (-17) andrewteale.me.uk/previews

❗ Independent Group GAIN from Independent Last week's Wroxall, Lowtherville and Bonchurch (Isle of Wight) council by-election result: INDGRP: 48.1% (+48.1) REF: 22.9% (+22.9) CON: 15.6% (-4.7) LDEM: 5.4% (+5.4) VEC: 4.7% (+4.7) LAB: 3.4% (-8.9) No Ind (-67.4) as prev. +/-…

❗ Reform GAIN from Conservative Last week's Ranskill (Bassetlaw) council by-election result: REF: 52.7% (+52.7) LAB: 15.7% (-27.8) CON: 14.5% (-42.0) IND: 7.2% (+7.2) LDEM: 6.5% (+6.5) GRN: 3.4% (+3.4) +/- 2023 Estimated turnout: ~32% (-4) andrewteale.me.uk/previews

❗ Reform GAIN from Labour Last week's Throston (Hartlepool) council by-election result: REF: 48.7% (+37.8) LAB: 38.8% (-11.4) GRN: 5.1% (+5.1) CON: 4.8% (+4.8) LDEM: 2.6% (+2.6) No Ind (-38.9) as prev. +/- 2023 Estimated turnout: ~20% (-3) andrewteale.me.uk/previews