Ben Zaranko

Come for the coat, stay for the big twist at 02:14

🤓Possibly my favourite ever @OBR_UK chart👇 The green line is what the Government tells us is going to happen to the national debt at each Budget (up a bit then down). The yellow line is what actually happens (up, up, up)

This is a good idea. If NHS spending plans are predicated on targets for productivity growth, there needs to be a high-quality, agreed upon measure of productivity that can be used to hold NHS providers to account. NHS England is ~7% of GDP, after all. gov.uk/government/pub…

@BenZaranko and I have a new paper out in the Oxford Review of Economic Policy on the future of health and social care provision in the UK. It sets out the challenges and opportunities for increasing inputs and productivity in the NHS and adult social care in the coming decades

This is a good one - goes beyond the ups and downs of the Spending Review to tackle the big questions, like: should we borrow for defence? Is PSNFL a good measure of debt? What's wrong with council tax? Will taxes go up later this year? And why are we even here?

NEW PODCAST: Spending Review 2025: What it means and why it matters @PJTheEconomist, @HelenMiller_IFS and @benzaranko discuss what the Spending Review means for public services, government investment, and the broader economic outlook: ifs.org.uk/articles/spend…

Please look at this chart, so that the embarrassing amount of time I spent last night calibrating the size of each circle to correspond to the £ increases wasn't all a waste. Defence and net zero the biggest winners on capital funding: revealing on government priorities.

One for the fiscal enthusiasts: This Spending Review marks the first proper shift towards what we might call "PSNFL-friendly" policy: more loans, equity investments and guarantees, which don't count against the government's chosen debt rule. Suspect we'll see more of this.