Richard Baldwin
@BaldwinRE
Prof of Int’l Econ @IMD_Bschool; Founder & Editor-in-Chief @VoxEU; NonRes Fellow @PIIE. Books:Globotics Upheaval 2019, MITEconPhD, http://BaldwinRE.bsky.social
How will the differing tariffs on autos for Japan and other countries play out? 👉see my long-form from last month👇🔗 in 1st reply
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Did you see this🤷♂️ Is it his hand writing? Notice it's 50% profit, not 90%... cnbc.com/2025/07/23/tru…
My Factful Friday come early, and on substack: open.substack.com/pub/rbaldwin/p…
Good point Rob, but how is $550 billion going to be invested in the US "at my direction"; how would you write that into a legally binding text? And the US gets 90% of the profits? Again, that's ridiculous. 🤷♂️I figure that part will turn out like the Foxconn con during his first…
As I understand it, the deal requires that Japan make significant investments in the US. This is an innovative feature, which makes it hard to compare w USMCA or earlier PTAs. I don't think USMCA counts as "largest" deal b/c it was really just a modification of NAFTA.
icymi in US, MX, CA
PSA: "I just signed the largest trade deal in history"; Prez Trump, yesterday. 🧐? Nope: 👉Trump uses facts like confetti; attention grabbing while their flying; forgotten once they land. 👉USA's import+export in USMCA=$1.6t; USA's import+export with Japan=$230b. ➡️USMCA is…
Did you see this🤷♂️ Is it his hand writing? Notice it's 50% profit, not 90%... cnbc.com/2025/07/23/tru…
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Great podcast on the edited collection of super star economists writing on the full range of topics! Here my co-editor, Michele Ruta, discusses the key findings with Tim Phililips! The state of globalisation cepr.org/multimedia/sta… via @cepr_org
the link: linkedin.com/pulse/whats-up…
What’s Up With Trump Auto Tariffs? 👉My latest Factful Friday, ICMYI (also on Substack) 🔗in first reply (to tease the X-algo)
What’s Up With Trump Auto Tariffs? 👉My latest Factful Friday, ICMYI (also on Substack) 🔗in first reply (to tease the X-algo)
PSA: "I just signed the largest trade deal in history"; Prez Trump, yesterday. 🧐? Nope: 👉Trump uses facts like confetti; attention grabbing while their flying; forgotten once they land. 👉USA's import+export in USMCA=$1.6t; USA's import+export with Japan=$230b. ➡️USMCA is…
What is the big stick that the EU could use if the US overplays its hand in the trade talks?👇
If EU plays hardball with USA. HOW DOES THE EU INVOKE THE ACI? 👉 The ACI gives the Commission right to examine coercion and present finding to EU members to vote on it by qualified majority (double majority). 👉 The whole process could take a year, but could be sped up.
The political impact of the tariff price rises it’s not so much in inflation as it is in the price of frequently purchased goods. The headline inflation measured as a very large dose of services which aren’t affected by the tariffs. But consumers notice frequently bought goods…
Probably enough time for this to work its way through into inflation just as a campaign for the midterm starts… @nytimes
Icymi
EU is the last big-economy trade deal left to do (China neutralised US trade leverage in May). 👉EU pondering threatening hardball with its “anti-coercion instrument” ➡️triggering the ACI would simply spark an investigation, not immediate measures. If the commission found the US…
Tricky tariffs have tricky effects on companies 👇
How will the differing tariffs on autos for Japan and other countries play out? 👉see my long-form from last month👇🔗 in 1st reply
And with good reason! 👉US-Japan deal has lower car tariffs on imports from JP than from MX or CA❗️ 👉 see my reasoning on substack: lnkd.in/eWBNKMtC
Great podcast on the edited collection of super star economists writing on the full range of topics! Here my co-editor, Michele Ruta, discusses the key findings with Tim Phililips! The state of globalisation cepr.org/multimedia/sta… via @cepr_org
EU is the last big-economy trade deal left to do (China neutralised US trade leverage in May). 👉EU pondering threatening hardball with its “anti-coercion instrument” ➡️triggering the ACI would simply spark an investigation, not immediate measures. If the commission found the US…