Axel Merk

In 1971, Nixon "temporarily" closed gold window. In 2008, central banks "temporarily" went into crisis mode. I'm temporarily skeptical it will all end well.

The UK is losing 16,500 millionaires in 2025. Capital gains tax hikes—up 20% to 80% over prior rates—backfired spectacularly. Tax receipts fell 18% year-over-year. Europe, take note: you can’t tax your way to prosperity…you can only chase it away. #UK #TaxFlight #CapitalGains

The consumer is ~2/3 of the US economy. If the consumer weakens, doesn’t the economy follow? Yet in my polls, nearly twice as many expect a stronger economy than a stronger consumer. Cognitive bias? Wishful thinking? Or… plausible?

In 6 months from today, will the US economy be

In 6 months from today, will the US consumer be

Lagarde differentiates between forward guidance and producing a reaction function. Says tariff resolution is a positive, but won't pre-commit to ECB reaction. This is a helpful characterization. She did suggest that some ECB members would favor a pre-commitment

question: is there consensus in the governing counsel? Lagarde: hmm... - I would like to remind you that we are at 2%. Is there a risk of undershooting? There's a actually forecast of undershooting due to base effects. There will always be 2 to 3 concerned about undershooting.

Lagarde: confident inflationary shock from past few years is behind us. Good for her. Incidentally, Finnair appears to have just settled a labor dispute -- those disputes with very high wage demands continue to pop up.