AP Research
@AlphaPicks
Global macro perspectives and multi-asset strategy.
Max Long topping the Bloomberg leaderboard. The cycle gods are playing with us now.
When your Bloomberg sales contact emails over your $9.5k quarterly invoice.
- “sydney sweeney ad” - “denim companies” - “aeo stock price” - “high short interest stocks”
Minimising Treasury borrowing costs isn’t part of the Fed’s mandate. If borrowing costs are a problem, that’s a message for fiscal policymakers, not a cue for rate cuts.
Imagine getting stopped out of a crowded trade because Bailey called it crowded.
BoE Gov. Bailey: Short dollar is now the most crowded trade in the market.
“Mommy, how did daddy get so rich?” “He ran a low-beta spread trade, printed 2%, then told people without an ISDA to stay in their lane.”
Nothing like an approaching tariff deadline to awaken Lutnick’s inner main character.
Do markets keep fading the noise, or is the signal getting louder? Our thoughts, commentary, and a few ideas for the week ahead. alphapicks.co.uk/p/top-trade-id…
Vol is sticky into the election window, but there are still ways to express a view without overpaying. Looking at a 2-week USDJPY 149–152 call spread… capped upside, defined risk, and avoids vega crush. Max 3:1 payoff.
Ahead of Japanese elections this weekend, and with U.S. rate uncertainty, short-dated #JPY options have risen sharply in price. JPY/USD options expiring on Monday (MJ3N5) imply a weekend breakeven of ~0.85%, and the 1w expiry (SJ4N5) implies a 7 day breakeven of ~1.3%.
Great chat with my buddies at @AlphaPicks !
Had a little conversation with Le Shrub (@agnostoxxx) about all things TACO, GAG, and how he’s positioned in markets. Linked below.