PlanB
@100trillionUSD
All models are wrong, but some are useful
My first Medium article! Combining all my tweets about modeling bitcoin's value with stock-to-flow, the halving, power laws, fractals and questions & answers to one logical story. medium.com/@100trillionUS…
Bitcoin Relative Strength Index (RSI) is almost 75 (orange dot). In this bull market we will see several months with RSI 80+ (red dots, like 2021, 2017, 2013 and 2011) IMO.
Bitcoin is a bet on government stupidity, especially that governments keep creating money out of thin air (debasement). Look at your government and tell me, smart or stupid? It will continue forever. Bitcoin is the safest bet I can think of.
Gold market cap is ~$20T Bitcoin market cap is ~$2T So, gold is worth 10x bitcoin Gold scarcity (stock-to-flow ratio) is ~60 Bitcoin scarcity is ~120 So, bitcoin is 2x scarcer than gold IMO bitcoin is at least 10x undervalued
19/Jul/2025 #bitcoin on brink of bailout for Chancellor.
Very happy with my Jan 2023 prediction (2.5 years ago)
My 2 sats on #bitcoin price: - November 2022 low of $15,5K was the bottom - BTC has crossed Short Term Holder (STH) and will rise into 2024-halving and subsequent 2025 bull market. Several on-chain signals confirm STH signal. - 2024 halving will be >$32K - 2025 bull market >$100K
Follow-up since I informed/warned about the hack : I got my email account back! Proton acted very professionally and froze the account immediately after my report, so the hackers couldn't access the account anymore. Also, damage seems minimal, because Proton encrypts email…
⚠️ My email account 100trillionusd@protonmail is HACKED!! All email from this account since July 5 is NOT ME !! If you have communicated with me via protonmail, assume the hackers have your email address and the emails. Of course I will not be using protonmail in the future.
⚠️ My email account 100trillionusd@protonmail is HACKED!! All email from this account since July 5 is NOT ME !! If you have communicated with me via protonmail, assume the hackers have your email address and the emails. Of course I will not be using protonmail in the future.
See that woble in the yellow line (12m average RSI)? My analysis in this video: m.youtube.com/watch?v=77CJib…
🔥New monthly bitcoin analysis video on YT! m.youtube.com/watch?v=77CJib…
FYI: I still believe that bitcoin average price will be ~$0.5m this halving cycle (2024-2028). Note that S2F prediction is very rough (obviously because the prediction is made only using scarcity/S2F-ratio) with a $0.25m-$1m range (so $0.3m or $0.6m average would also be fine).
Average bitcoin price 2020-2024 halving cycle was $34k. A bit below 2019 S2F prediction of $55k, but still in normal range and not bad given BTC<$4k when prediction was made. Refit of S2F with new data (below) shows similar parameters & results: $0.5m 2024-2028 and $4m 2028-2032
Will bitcoin reach $200,000 before end of next year (2026)?
Bitcoin June closing price: $107,179 ... new monthly close ATH, like clockwork
Bitcoin is at an interesting point in time: RSI 70. Traditional investors use a 30-70 RSI range, so they start to get worried that BTC is overbought now. BTC investors on the other hand know that normal BTC RSI range is 40-90, so RSI 70 is only slightly above the average (65)🚀
Bitcoin is so much more than just technology adoption. Note that the main reason why bitcoin was made is debasement, i.e. fiat money printing by central banks, resulting in (hyper)inflation and fiat money debasement.
Just to confirm bitcoin is still in a bull market🔴 I see some people turning bearish and shorting, but the data tells a different story, a bullish story IMO. We just need some patience.
Adoption S-curve only steepens on linear scale (red line). It looks like "the vertical" between 10% and 90% adoption is where all the action is. On log scale there is no vertical (blue line). Only exponential growth, until ~50% adoption: 1% -> 2% -> 4% -> 8% -> 16% -> 32% etc.
